Chinese Economy on Fast Track

The size of the Chinese economy is likely to climb, in world rankings, from its current position as the sixth largest to the second largest by 2030, said economists with global investment bank Lehman Brothers.
With its gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an annual rate of 6 per cent, China will come in after the United States to secure the second place spot, the economists said.
Such an economy stands to offer exciting business and capital market opportunities to foreigners over the next 10 years or so, said Robert Subbaraman, a Lehman Brothers senior economist who is the co-author of a newly released comprehensive report on China's economic, political, social and foreign policy prospects over the next 10 years.
At a press conference last week in Beijing, Subbaraman and his colleagues offered detailed explanations of their forecasts regarding the impact of the country's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), growth opportunities and how to do business in China.
WTO impact
China's economy will be disrupted in the short term, but in the long run, it can benefit immensely from its WTO entry, said Subbaraman.
Rising numbers of bankruptcies and displaced workers are likely, as increased trade competition after the WTO forces a reallocation of resources away from protected and less competitive industries to sectors where China has more of a comparative advantage, he said.
According to the International Monetary Fund, WTO accession will subtract 0.3 per cent from China's real GDP growth in the first year.
Subbaraman said potential losers from the accession include the highly protected agricultural, telecommunications and banking sectors and some of the more capital-intensive ones such as the auto industry.
Besides short-term adjustment costs, WTO accession will have a profound effect on the composition of China's balance of payments, he said.
The reduction in trade barriers will lead to a substantial increase in merchandise imports but only a modest rise in exports.
Furthermore, WTO entry will help spur the development of the legal and regulatory framework and accelerate reform in the bank and enterprise sectors, thus creating demand for foreign services -financial, accounting, management consultancy and legal-to support restructuring.
As a result, the current account surplus of US$20.5 billion in 2000 is likely to deteriorate and could sink into a small deficit by 2003, Subbaraman said in his report.
However, the deterioration in China's current account should be more than offset by an improvement in the capital account, noted Paul Sheard, chief economist for Lehman Brothers Asia.
The liberalization of China's services sector should attract stronger FDI (foreign direct investment) inflows, while measures to strengthen the rule of law and to broaden and deepen the bond and equity markets should help deter portfolio capital flight.
"On our estimates, actual FDI will soar from US$46.8 billion today to around US$65 billion by the end of 2003," he said, adding that China's overall balance of payments surplus is expected to increase steadily in the coming years.
"This means that the tendency for the RMB will be to appreciate once China begins to move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime," he said.
In the long run, WTO entry is expected to add around 1.3 per cent per annum to China's GDP growth, he added.
"We are optimistic that China will achieve an average 6 per cent growth over the next two decades," he said at the press conference.
Business Bible
In the report, Subbaraman said the answer to the question: "Should we be there?" is a cautious "yes" for multinational investors with a global foothold.
On one hand, China is steadily moving towards a market-based economy and its recent WTO entry will accelerate this, he said.
Furthermore, globalization and the information age have spurred the pace and momentum to dramatic levels.
On the other hand, there are risks, especially for foreign investors over the next two to three years. China's WTO accession will result in painful adjustment costs in conjunction with unfinished financial and State-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms, as well as rapid urbanization, he said.
"But our near-term assessment is that, provided macroeconomic policies remain accommodative, the economy will weather this difficult period, very likely averaging GDP growth of around 7 per cent," added Subbaraman.
He said there is hardly any fixed formula for success in China, but foreign investors need to pay attention to several points:
The China context: China's history, culture and present situation make it a unique heterogeneous environment, which will bear heavily on commerce and should not be ignored.
The profit motive: Chinese understand the profit motive. So once a foreign investor establishes an apparent willingness to bear a loss, it can prove remarkably difficult to turn that stance around and into profit.
Building from the bottom: There is no place for firms looking to get in, make a quick killing and get out again. The best returns are going to be made by those firms that are prepared to invest real time and effort in China.
"And keep in mind that significant amounts of both will likely be necessary to identify and then establish an initial niche," said Subbaraman.
Inevitable slowdowns: Like that of any economy, China's progress will not be smooth, for both cyclical and structural reasons. Firms operating in China should be prepared to put up with setbacks too, as the economy goes through lean years alongside the fat.
The global context: China's emergence as a major global player, both economically and politically, will inevitably bring conflicts in commercial relations.
But the overall probability is that, for the foreseeable future at least, these will be contained and defused without long-term negative impact on firms prepared to ride out the squalls.


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The Best Printer to Develop Your Chinese Business

Almost everything in business use computer for optimal result. You, for example, need computer to process data in accounting that becomes integral part of business. All things you do by computer are in visual form and you need to print them to be physical form. For this reason, it is something critical to provide your business with high quality printer. Along with fast development of printing technology, you can buy advanced printer with laser system today. It is much simpler to print using printer with laser system than that of conventional system. In order to get printer that you need for business development, just come to chinacir.com.
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China's packaging machinery will have new opportunities

Out of the country packaging machinery in the new challenges. Our packing machinery late start, so and foreign packaging machinery level has a large gap compared. But in recent years, with the rapid development of packaging machinery, our packaging machinery from technology and performance has replaced the foreign packaging machinery in China's packing industry market. China's packaging machinery has been constantly innovation, in automatic control and the quality of the products has been on a continuous improvement. Today's packaging machinery has been dominating the packaging industry dominated the domestic market, go out of the country, to the foreign sales packing machinery is a new market.

Today, China's rapid development of packaging machinery and competition is intense, want to have more development, it is necessary to the overseas market, seek new development. Now China's packing machine has with foreign packaging machinery that is balanced ability, in the international packaging machinery market have strong competitiveness.

China's packaging machinery although lose at the starting line, but with the struggling struggle has caught up with ran in front of the enterprise. Go out of the country, China's packaging machinery will welcome the new opportunity, at the same time with a new challenge. Want to have been stable development, occupy the foreign market, China's packaging machinery still need to continue to improve. The development of new products, technology innovation, throwing imitate, independent research and development, powerful combination.

If you want to know more about China packaging machinery market,you can visit:China's eight class packaging machinery will rapid development , 2012 china machinery & electronics reports ，china industry research .

2012 Chinese quarter financing scale for 3.88 trillion yuan society

Preliminary statistics in March, 2012, and 1.86 trillion yuan for social financing scale, respectively, than the same period of last month and more than 8136 and 35.5 billion yuan. Among them, the RMB loans of up to $1.01 trillion, up $332 billion gain; Foreign currency converted into renminbi loans of up to $95 billion, up $37.8 billion gain; Entrust loan increased 77 billion yuan, up by 74.3 billion yuan less; Trust loans of up to $95.2 billion, up $90.5 billion gain; The bank acceptance of draft not discount of up to $276.9 billion, an increase of 286.2 billion yuan less; Enterprise bonds net financing 197.4 billion yuan, up less 70.8 billion yuan; Non-financial enterprises domestic stock financing 56.5 billion yuan, up more than 800 million yuan.

Quarter financing scale for 3.88 trillion yuan society, $348.7 billion less than the same period last year. Among them, the RMB loans of up to $2.46 trillion, up $217 billion gain; Foreign currency converted into renminbi loans of up to $132.7 billion, an increase of 45.4 billion yuan less; Entrust loan increased 280.9 billion yuan, up by 39.5 billion yuan less; Trust loans of up to $172.1 billion, up $163 billion gain; The bank acceptance of draft not discount of up to $227.1 billion, an increase of 534 billion yuan less; Enterprise bonds net financing 396 billion yuan, up less 61 billion yuan; Non-financial enterprises domestic stock financing 87.5 billion yuan, up less 68.3 billion yuan.

From the structure look, quarter RMB loans accounted for 63.5% of the social financing scale, high 10.4% year-on-year; Foreign currency loans accounted for more than 3.4%, an low 0.8%; Entrust loans accounted for more than 7.2%, an low 0.4%; Trust loans accounted for more than 4.4%, an high 4.2%; Not the bank acceptance of draft discount than 5.9%, an low 12.1%; Enterprise bonds accounted for more than 10.2%, an low 0.6%; Non-financial enterprises within the territory of the share financing accounts for more than 2.3%, an low 1.4%.

Second, broad money growth of 13.4%, narrow money growth of 4.4%

The end of march, broad money (M2) balance of 89.56 trillion yuan, up 13.4%, 0.4% higher than the late last month, 0.2% lower than ShangNianMo; Narrow currency (M1) balance of 27.8 trillion yuan, up 4.4%, 0.1% higher than the late last month, 3.5% lower than ShangNianMo; The circulation of monetary (M0) balance of 4.96 trillion yuan, up 10.6%, 1.8% higher than the late last month, 3.2% lower than ShangNianMo. Quarter net cage $115.4 billion cash.Three, quarter increased 2.46 trillion yuan RMB loans, foreign currency loan by $21.1 billion

March, the RMB loans of up to $1.01 trillion, up $332 billion gain.

The end of march, foreign currency denominated loan balance of 60.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%. RMB loan balance of 57.25 trillion yuan, up 15.7%, 0.5% higher than the late last month, 0.1% lower than ShangNianMo. RMB loans of up to $2.46 trillion in the first quarter, up add 217 billion yuan. Points department look, household loans of up to $499.5 billion, among them, the short-term loans of up to $258.1 billion, medium and long-term loans of up to $241.4 billion;

Non-financial enterprises and other department loans of up to $1.95 trillion, among them, the short-term loans of up to $1.05 trillion, medium and long-term loans of up to $590.6 billion, bill financing an increase of 257.5 billion yuan. Foreign currency loan balances in late 559.5 billion us dollars, up 17.2%, foreign currency loan increase of $21.1 billion in the first quarter.Four, quarter RMB deposits of up to $3.76 trillion, foreign currency deposit by $66.8 billion

March, the RMB deposits of up to $2.95 trillion, up $271.2 billion gain.The end of march, local deposit balance is 86.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%. RMB deposit balance of 84.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, respectively, compared with the late last month and ShangNianMo low 0.1 and 1.0%.

Quarter RMB deposits of up to $3.76 trillion, up by 218.5 billion yuan less. Among them, the resident deposits of up to $3.14 trillion, 70.7 billion yuan deposit reduce non-financial enterprises, financial savings of up to $67.9 billion. Foreign currency deposit balance in late 341.8 billion us dollars, up by 44.3%, quarter foreign currency deposit by $66.8 billion.Five, the march on the inter-bank market between the bank of the weighted average interest rate of 2.58%, pledge type on bond repurchase of the weighted average interest rate of 2.66%

Quarter, the inter-bank market trading accumulative total 55.65 trillion yuan RMB to clinch a deal, clinch a deal on 912.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.5% average daily clinch a deal.March, the interbank market interbank lending month of the weighted average interest rate of 2.58%, 0.80% lower than last month; Bond repurchase pledge type on the weighted average interest rate of 2.66%, 0.92% lower than last month.Six, China's foreign exchange reserves balance of 3.31 trillion dollarsThe end of march, China's foreign exchange reserves balance was $3.305 trillion. The end of march, the exchange rate of the yuan for one dollar to 6.2943 yuan

RMB.Seven, quarter cross-border trade RMB business happening 580.4 billion yuan, direct investment RMB business happening 49.9 billion yuan
2012 quarter, to the settlement of the cross-border trade in goods, services trade and other often project, foreign direct investment, foreign direct investment occur respectively 416.6 billion yuan, 163.8 billion yuan, 2.9 billion yuan, 47 billion yuan.

China's high-end camera market growth

Camera makers, such as Canon Corp and Sony Corp, see dramatic growth in China's high-end camera market and plan to expand operations in smaller cities this year, industry executives told China Daily on Friday at the 15th China International Photograph and Electrical Imaging Machinery and Technology Fair.China is already the largest market in terms of high-end camera sales, Howard Ozawa, president and CEO of Canon China, told China Daily.Although professional cameras are more expensive in China than in other countries, China has a faster growth rate compared with developed economies such as the United States and Japan.

"China has already become the largest market for selling our latest high-end camera 5D Mark III, which started to sell last month and has almost sold out now," he said.Ozawa said sales revenue in China is expected to reach $10 billion by the end of 2016 with 30 percent year-on-year growth this year.
High-end digital single lens reflex cameras account for about 50 percent of the total sales of all Canon cameras in China, which is "much bigger than other countries", said Ozawa.

"China will become our largest market exceeding the US this year," said Sunil Kaul, managing director of the German camera maker Leica Camera Asia Pacific Pte Ltd. He said China accounts for about half of the company's sales of $120 million in the Asia-Pacific region.Another Japanese company, Nikon, also launched a new high-end camera at the fair, the D3200, with 2416 pixels and WiFi embedded.The companies will place greater emphasis on smaller cities this year.

According to a report released by China Electronics Chamber of Commerce, by the end of 2011, in large and medium-sized cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, about 75 percent of the population already had cameras, so there is little room for low-end camera growth in those cities.Sony plans to penetrate lower-tier cities this year by holding customer experience events in small cities and accelerating the development of online stores, Chen Ning, general manager of Sony China Ltd Digital Imaging Products Division, said.Samsung Electronics Co Ltd held about 18 percent of the digital camera market last year, said Myoung Sup-han, president of the company's digital imaging business. "This year, Samsung will focus on developing target customers unfamiliar with cameras," he added.The resources from:http://chinadaily.com.cn

 

Nestle wyeth in China will increase its share of the first

Yesterday, according to several Europe and the media, nestle acquisition infant nutrition department Pfizer to reach an agreement, the amount or as much as $9 billion, trading fastest announced next week. Domestic dairy experts say, such as the final deal to accomplish anything, nestle will jump into the largest "the milk powder" manufacturers. Analyzed that the deal is expected to be in more market face antitrust review. According to several Europe and the media, nestle may have beat the same counterbid-MeiZanChen alliance of danone. The news of the secret was quoted as saying, analysts said danone has told external people "is not likely to be" in the bid for win, but try to let them continue to Pfizer bid for it. Data shows, heinz, even earlier tried to understand the related transaction mengniu details that wyeth powdered milk is worth a rising tide lifts all boats, Pfizer's goal is to sell $10 billion.


But according to yesterday's report, in addition to nestle, danone has submitted the MeiZanChen-for wyeth milk powder's offer, the third bidder has actually pull out of this race. The reporter understands, since 2009 MeiZanChen from bristol-myers squibb in "independence", stripping the nourishment of the practice of business to make money. Statistics show that, over the MeiZanChen after IPO has increased three times. Abbott laboratories' last year also announced 2012 annual meeting the company "in two," including baby milk powder in the nutrition business will pack to the new company. American pharmaceutical giant Pfizer is in early July last year announced the official health care business, nutrition business strategic options for the assessment, and to focus on the core of the pharmaceutical business. Yesterday, the report refers to have please vote for the Pfizer behavior of the animal health business IPO could provide consultation.



The reporter understands, this deal is very popular in the milk high attention. "Drink" wyeth milk powder, not only means that can put the wyeth's "love son le", "athletes le" milk powder which brand now, and will also had become the domestic and global multinational market in the largest milk powder enterprise. According to the figures obtained from wyeth aspects, if is wyeth share, nestle in China baby formula milk powder from the original 4.4% share will be greatly increased to about 14.4%, more than 14% of the MeiZanChen, ranked first. Dairy senior experts are expected to riggs cotton, domestic baby formula milk powder market scale of about 35 billion yuan, "nestle wyeth" is expected to be 10 billion yuan. In fact, the two companies are quietly layout. Sources of our correspondent said yesterday: "wyeth in the aftermath of the national distributor meeting the information is revealed, even if milk powder business sold to others, dealers still played quite calm." In addition, nestle in China has for business product business recruitment of new. Cotton is expected to riggs, nestle will retain wyeth milk powder and the latter brand in suzhou factory, but after a deal will review procedures. Data shows, for through the antitrust review, nestle may have to give some businesses, such as after the deal it in Australia, Mexico's share will reach more than 60%. Data shows, Pfizer, in less than two years ago m&a wyeth (including pharmaceutical business) is the price of $68 billion, wyeth milk powder profit of about $500 million to $525 million. Yesterday, Pfizer and nestle in China are unwilling to report contacts could not be reached for comment.

China key forestry provinces development Biomass energy

Bark, abandoned edible fungus bag, rice and so on.In 2011, China's jilin province become these forestry waste to treasure, forestry straw briquette fuel production 50000 tons, biomass fuel heating area built molding 15, achieve output of 42 million yuan, for the urban heating area more than 800000 square meters. This is a reporter from the state forestry administration recently held in jilin province of yanji forestry biomass energy conference to understand the pilot demonstration.

China's jilin province is China key forestry, forest land area of 9.327 million hectares, the forest coverage rate 43.6%, forestry production using about 4 million tons. Forest biomass energy sources industry started in the early 1990 s, in recent years, the rapid development of the whole province-get are a total of more than 60 processing plant biomass of solid fuel, produces lignin pellet fuel is mainly used in distributed heating market substitute of coal, oil and gas boiler; In recent three years, the province is around the biomass energy sources industry, support the development of all kinds of projects and the investment, support capital more than 2700 yuan.

According to introducing, these woodiness pellet fuel mainly branches, bark and edge horn broken material things, such as with forestry abandoned edible fungus and biomass such as rice bag as raw material, through crushing, drying, molding processes and become, can be used for residents, centralized heat supply and kitchen heating combustion to produce electricity.Jilin provincial forestry department deputy commissioner of QiaoHeng said, forestry development has the unique advantages of biomass energy, to adjust the forestry as a single foster lumber of forest management ideas, gradually to enhance forest ecological system of the material energy conversion function, improve the overall output efficiency changes forest, the formation of jilin characteristic "the forest cultivation-of edible fungi-hot, electricity, wood particles" integration of forestry ecosystem circulation economic mode for jilin the modern forestry construction to explore new ways.

It is reported, jilin province will also in towns, forest biomass energy industry of engineering. In the forest, combined with reconstruction heating engineering construction shantytown, actively promote the forest center, granular fuel ghetto imposition of central heating engineering; In cities and towns, combined with city warm house project, in changchun, jilin, in large and medium-sized cities such as promoting lignin pellet fuel alternative fuel oil and coal boiler heating and engineering.

If you want to know more about china Biomass energy market,you can visit:
2012 China Biomass Energy Industry Development Analysis and Forecast Report
2012 China Biomass Energy Market Depth Survey Report