China's Economy

China's economy held the line on growth in 1999, mainly with government assistance, as the economy continues to suffer from the effects of massive, and accelerating, restructuring. The coming year could see some improvement, though the economy is likely to remain under stress as the restructuring intensifies over the next three to five years.
Large-scale job loss and gluts of consumer goods are still dampening demand, but deflation has begun to flatten out. Recovery in the rest of Asia helped keep exports strong, though foreign investment dipped (see Trade and Foreign Direct Investment).
China's preparations to enter the World Trade Organization (WTO) will accelerate the pace of the toughest reforms yet in agriculture, the state-owned sector, and banking, among others. Economic performance depends in large part on how well China implements these reforms and on non-state sector growth. Foreign firms are also likely to see these reforms as crucial, as WTO implementation is deeply entwined with these issues.
OVERALL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN 1999
GDP China's GDP grew slightly more than 7 percent in 1999, thanks only to the government's ongoing stimulus program. With other Asian countries recovering, China's probable WTO accession this year, and a new drive to boost the private sector, however, both the Chinese government and outside analysts predict slightly stronger growth-around 7.5 percent-in 2000.
Investment Investment in fixed assets rose 7.8 percent in 1999, and is expected to increase by another 7.8 percent in 2000. Much of the investment came from the government's stimulus plan.
Prices Consumer and retail prices fell throughout 1999. Overcapacity in many industries was chiefly responsible for the 27-month deflation, but slack demand caused by consumer worry about job security and education and health costs also played a role. Many economists believe that the worst is past, and that deflation will wane in 2000.
Monetary policy China's impressive money-supply growth rates continued in 1999. Deflation-fighting efforts included the issuance of more than *200 billion ($24.16 billion) in new currency last year; the institution in November of a tax on individual savings deposits; and another round of interest rate cuts. The government also increased its reliance on open-market operations in 1999, after suspending operations through mid-1998. This could be the year Beijing further relaxes its control over loan interest rates.
Financial reforms China stepped up the pace of financial reform in 1999 and this pace is likely to continue in 2000. A few of the more high-profile moves included: establishing asset-management companies to relieve the four state banks of their bad loans; slightly loosening restrictions on foreign participation in commercial banking; granting domestic insurance firms the ability to invest in closed-end securities funds; and expanding the number of listed investment funds.
The government's budget woes Government revenue, while rising of late, is still falling far short of the budget's requirements. Though the State Administration of Taxation reported that total revenue was up 13.4 percent in 1999, tax evasion remains a serious problem. The government has already issued billions of RMB in Treasury bonds both to help recapitalize the ailing banks and to stimulate the suffering economy, and more such outlays will be necessary before either recovers.
Foreign currency and the value of the RMB China's foreign-currency reserves reached $154.68 billion at the end of 1999, up 6.7 percent. Most analysts expect that the RMB's value will remain relatively stable this year.
Agriculture Falling agricultural prices, due to bumper harvests, were responsible for the small rise in rural incomes of only 4 percent in 1999. This was less than half of the average urban income, which rose more than 9 percent. Rural poverty is likely to be exacerbated when China joins the WTO-an additional 9.6 million farm workers are expected to lose their jobs as a result of China opening its agricultural markets.
SOE reform With many of the smaller and more inefficient SOEs already closed, the government now has to tackle the behemoths, the country's largest employers. The number of laid-off SOE workers is expected to hit 12 million this year.
The non-state sector China has made several moves to encourage the non-state sector in recent months. As China prepares to enter the WTO, private firms may gain more opportunities to participate in the capital markets. Parts of the service sector may also be deregulated.
Employment In 1999, urban registered unemployment was 3.1 percent. Official unemployment figures do not include the rural population, the floating population, or the millions who are technically unemployed, but still on SOE payrolls. Independent analysts estimate that when these populations are included, China's unemployment rate reaches double digits.
SCENARIOS FOR 2000
WTO preparations aside, the PRC economy is facing several years of high unemployment, stubborn overcapacity, industrial and agricultural restructuring, and slower growth than that of the early 1990s. The prospect of WTO membership gives the country's leaders an added impetus to implement reforms. Implementation will be difficult, and will almost certainly meet resistance, especially at the local level. Nevertheless, reform will progress, if slowly, and China will continue on its path to full integration with the world economy.


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Chinese Economy on Fast Track

The size of the Chinese economy is likely to climb, in world rankings, from its current position as the sixth largest to the second largest by 2030, said economists with global investment bank Lehman Brothers.
With its gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an annual rate of 6 per cent, China will come in after the United States to secure the second place spot, the economists said.
Such an economy stands to offer exciting business and capital market opportunities to foreigners over the next 10 years or so, said Robert Subbaraman, a Lehman Brothers senior economist who is the co-author of a newly released comprehensive report on China's economic, political, social and foreign policy prospects over the next 10 years.
At a press conference last week in Beijing, Subbaraman and his colleagues offered detailed explanations of their forecasts regarding the impact of the country's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), growth opportunities and how to do business in China.
WTO impact
China's economy will be disrupted in the short term, but in the long run, it can benefit immensely from its WTO entry, said Subbaraman.
Rising numbers of bankruptcies and displaced workers are likely, as increased trade competition after the WTO forces a reallocation of resources away from protected and less competitive industries to sectors where China has more of a comparative advantage, he said.
According to the International Monetary Fund, WTO accession will subtract 0.3 per cent from China's real GDP growth in the first year.
Subbaraman said potential losers from the accession include the highly protected agricultural, telecommunications and banking sectors and some of the more capital-intensive ones such as the auto industry.
Besides short-term adjustment costs, WTO accession will have a profound effect on the composition of China's balance of payments, he said.
The reduction in trade barriers will lead to a substantial increase in merchandise imports but only a modest rise in exports.
Furthermore, WTO entry will help spur the development of the legal and regulatory framework and accelerate reform in the bank and enterprise sectors, thus creating demand for foreign services -financial, accounting, management consultancy and legal-to support restructuring.
As a result, the current account surplus of US$20.5 billion in 2000 is likely to deteriorate and could sink into a small deficit by 2003, Subbaraman said in his report.
However, the deterioration in China's current account should be more than offset by an improvement in the capital account, noted Paul Sheard, chief economist for Lehman Brothers Asia.
The liberalization of China's services sector should attract stronger FDI (foreign direct investment) inflows, while measures to strengthen the rule of law and to broaden and deepen the bond and equity markets should help deter portfolio capital flight.
"On our estimates, actual FDI will soar from US$46.8 billion today to around US$65 billion by the end of 2003," he said, adding that China's overall balance of payments surplus is expected to increase steadily in the coming years.
"This means that the tendency for the RMB will be to appreciate once China begins to move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime," he said.
In the long run, WTO entry is expected to add around 1.3 per cent per annum to China's GDP growth, he added.
"We are optimistic that China will achieve an average 6 per cent growth over the next two decades," he said at the press conference.
Business Bible
In the report, Subbaraman said the answer to the question: "Should we be there?" is a cautious "yes" for multinational investors with a global foothold.
On one hand, China is steadily moving towards a market-based economy and its recent WTO entry will accelerate this, he said.
Furthermore, globalization and the information age have spurred the pace and momentum to dramatic levels.
On the other hand, there are risks, especially for foreign investors over the next two to three years. China's WTO accession will result in painful adjustment costs in conjunction with unfinished financial and State-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms, as well as rapid urbanization, he said.
"But our near-term assessment is that, provided macroeconomic policies remain accommodative, the economy will weather this difficult period, very likely averaging GDP growth of around 7 per cent," added Subbaraman.
He said there is hardly any fixed formula for success in China, but foreign investors need to pay attention to several points:
The China context: China's history, culture and present situation make it a unique heterogeneous environment, which will bear heavily on commerce and should not be ignored.
The profit motive: Chinese understand the profit motive. So once a foreign investor establishes an apparent willingness to bear a loss, it can prove remarkably difficult to turn that stance around and into profit.
Building from the bottom: There is no place for firms looking to get in, make a quick killing and get out again. The best returns are going to be made by those firms that are prepared to invest real time and effort in China.
"And keep in mind that significant amounts of both will likely be necessary to identify and then establish an initial niche," said Subbaraman.
Inevitable slowdowns: Like that of any economy, China's progress will not be smooth, for both cyclical and structural reasons. Firms operating in China should be prepared to put up with setbacks too, as the economy goes through lean years alongside the fat.
The global context: China's emergence as a major global player, both economically and politically, will inevitably bring conflicts in commercial relations.
But the overall probability is that, for the foreseeable future at least, these will be contained and defused without long-term negative impact on firms prepared to ride out the squalls.


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The Best Printer to Develop Your Chinese Business

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China's packaging machinery will have new opportunities

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